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气候变化和碳减排对金融稳定的影响日益受到关注,但有关研究尚不多见。本文构造了工业37个二级行业能源消费与碳排放数据库,基于某国有大型商业银行的相应行业信贷质量数据,综合采用威尔森(Wilson)模型和有约束的非线性规划方法,并通过对三种减排策略比较分析得出结论:为最小化银行资产质量冲击,碳减排应先从具备较大减排弹性和较低减排成本的行业开始,在充分利用其减排空间后再按梯度依次分配给具备相对较小减排弹性、略高减排成本和较大减排空间的行业,这比“各行业同比例碳减排”策略下的银行新增信贷不良率要低2个数量级;此外,这种策略将减排集中于几个重点行业,不仅与欧盟经验相契,也与中国当前碳减排基础建设尚不完善的现实条件相符,具备较强的可操作性。在此基础上,本文从碳减排机制、减排策略以及银行审慎经营等角度提出了若干针对性的政策建议。
The impact of climate change and carbon emission reduction on financial stability is receiving increasing attention, but the research is still rare. In this paper, 37 industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions databases of secondary industries are constructed. Based on the credit quality data of the corresponding state-owned large commercial banks, a Wilson model and a constrained nonlinear programming method are adopted. A comparative analysis of the three emission reduction strategies concluded that in order to minimize the impact of bank asset quality, carbon emission reduction should begin with industries that have greater emission reduction flexibility and lower emission reduction costs. After making full use of the emission reduction space Gradiently allocated to industries with relatively less emission reduction elasticity, slightly lower emission reduction costs and greater emission reduction space than new banks under the “Carbon emission reduction” strategy in all sectors In addition, this strategy will focus on emission reduction in several key industries, not only with the EU experience, but also with China’s current carbon emissions infrastructure is not perfect reality conditions, with strong operational Sex. On this basis, this paper puts forward some targeted policy suggestions from the perspective of carbon emission reduction mechanism, emission reduction strategy and bank prudent management.