论文部分内容阅读
上证指数作为国内最早上市,最具权威的指数,一直是经济研究人员和投资者关注的焦点。通过GARCH(1,1)模型来实际剖析上证日收盘指数的运动规律,包括收益率序列存在的波动聚集性和尖峰厚尾等特征,并对收盘指数进行一定预测,并得到改进后适用于我国上证日收盘指数市场的GARCH(1,1)模型,以此使广大投资者可以更好的通过上证指数运动规律判断股市行情,做出适合自己的判断。对投资者投资上证日收盘指数市场做了指导。
As the earliest listing and the most authoritative index in the country, the Shanghai Composite Index has been the focus of attention of economic researchers and investors. The GARCH (1,1) model is used to analyze the movement regularity of the closing index on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, including the volatility aggregation and the peak thick tail characteristics of the yield series, and make some predictions on the closing index, which are improved for our country The closing day of the Shanghai Composite Index market GARCH (1,1) model, so that investors can better through the Shanghai Composite Index movement patterns to determine the stock market, make their own judgments. Investors to invest in the Shanghai Composite Index day has done a guide to the market.