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首先引出基于活动理论的出行需求预测方法,将活动—出行理论和传统的出行方式相结合,提出“出行方式链”的概念,并明确出行方式链的两大特性:一致性和转换性;然后阐述城市居民个人属性与出行方式链相关性分析方法,并以2006年4月上虞市的居民出行调查数据为基础,对城市居民个人属性与出行方式链之间的相关性进行实例分析;最后,说明个人属性对出行方式链的选择起着至关重要的作用。
First of all, this paper deduces the travel demand forecasting method based on the activity theory, and combines the activity-travel theory with the traditional travel mode to propose the concept of “travel mode chain” and clarifies the two characteristics of travel mode chain: consistency and transitivity Then, the paper analyzes the correlation between urban personal attributes and travel mode chains, and analyzes the correlation between personal attributes and travel style chains of urban residents based on the survey data of residents travel in Shangyu City in April 2006; Finally, it shows that personal attributes play a crucial role in the choice of travel mode chain.