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疏解非首都核心功能将对整个京津冀地区资源环境压力分布空间格局产生重要影响。该文从政策、经济、资源环境3个维度识别了潜在的疏解工业门类,通过Monte Carlo方法确定企业个体规模,运用离散选择模型,综合考虑区位因素、产业资源环境效率等变量,识别了首都重点行业潜在的疏解承接地,并结合企业规模-资源环境效率水平函数,预测京津冀地区的资源环境压力空间变化。结果表明:“十三五”期间,非首都核心功能疏解将会造成北京市工业产值下降7%,主要资源消耗和污染物排放量减少9%以上,能有效缓解北京市水环境压力;京津冀区域除北京外其他地区工业产值平均增长5%左右,显著大于疏解产业带来的资源消耗与污染物排放增长。最后结合各地现有环境压力与承载力,提出了差别化的政策建议。
The solution to the non-capital core functions will have an important impact on the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure distribution in the entire Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper identifies potential industrial categories from three dimensions of policy, economy and resources and environment. Through Monte Carlo method to determine the individual size of enterprises, using discrete selection model, taking variables such as location factors and industrial resource environmental efficiency into consideration, Industry potential to ease to undertake, and combined with the scale of enterprise - resources and environmental efficiency level function, predict Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region resources and environment pressure spatial changes. The results show that during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, non-capital core functions will result in a 7% drop in industrial output in Beijing and a 9% reduction in major resource consumption and pollutant emissions, which will effectively relieve the pressure on water environment in Beijing. The industrial output value of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region except for Beijing increased by about 5% on average, which was significantly larger than the resource consumption and pollutant emission growth brought by the easement industry. Finally, based on the pressure and carrying capacity of the existing environment around the country, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.