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目的探讨捕获-再捕获方法(CRM)在疟疾国家监测点的应用,评估不同地区的监测点疟疾流行现状。方法采用CRM,估计不同地区监测点的疟疾发病率。结果发病率较高地区和发病率不稳定地区、发病率较低地区的估计发病率(/10万)分别为1247.30、171.50和46.10;漏报率分别为65.20%、45.32%和66.67%。结论CRM能较好的反映监测点地区疟疾流行现状。
Objective To explore the application of capture-recapture method (CRM) in national malaria surveillance sites and to evaluate the prevalence of malaria in monitoring sites in different regions. Methods The CRM was used to estimate the incidence of malaria in monitoring points in different areas. Results The high morbidity and instability in the areas with lower morbidity were estimated at 1247.30, 171.50 and 46.10 respectively; the false negative rates were 65.20%, 45.32% and 66.67% respectively. Conclusion CRM can better reflect the status of malaria epidemic in the monitoring area.