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职工人数测算在养老保险收支测算中居重要地位,通常使用的时间序列法,受波动性因素影响测算结果误差较大,在保障水平固定时误差直接表现为基期收支与实际不符。为了更准确地模拟职工年龄结构的变化,本文采用OLG方法,建立年龄变化相对稳定的职工人数递推模型。通过基期数据的对比检验,我们发现退休职工增速远大于正常的企业职工退休速度,参保职工人数测算口径偏小是造成这一现象的主要原因。
The calculation of the number of employees occupies an important position in the calculation of endowment insurance revenue and expenditures. The commonly used time series method has large error in the measurement results under the influence of the fluctuation factors. When the level of security is fixed, the error directly shows as the non-conformity with the actual expenditure in the base period. In order to more accurately simulate the changes in the age structure of workers, this paper uses the OLG method to establish a recursive model of the number of employees with relatively stable age. Through the comparison of the base period data, we found that the growth rate of retired workers is far greater than the normal retirement speed of enterprise employees, and the small-caliber of insured workers is the main reason for this phenomenon.