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一无论是管理一个国家,还是管理一个企业,对于管理者来说,关键在于根据已掌握的统计资料,以及对未来可能发生的情况进行科学预测,以便正确地决定即将采取的方针、政策和措施。所以,管理工作实质上是一种决策工作。无怪乎美国经济学家西蒙(H·A·Simon)曾指出“管理就是决策”。显然,一个最佳决策力案的确定,来源于对已发生现象状况如实反映——统计,和对未来可能发生的新情况做出科学预测。因而说,统计预测是决策的基础和手段,是管理者做到耳明、眼亮、头脑清晰取得成功的不可缺少的武器,也是管理工作的一根支柱。
Whether managing a country or managing a business, the key for managers is to make scientific predictions based on available statistics and what may happen in the future in order to properly determine the forthcoming directions, policies and measures . Therefore, management is essentially a decision-making work. No wonder the U.S. economist Simon A. Simon pointed out that “management is a policy.” Obviously, the determination of an optimal decision-making power comes from the factual reflection of the phenomena that have taken place - statistics, and the scientific prediction of new situations that may occur in the future. Therefore, statistical forecasting is the basis and means of decision-making. It is also an indispensable weapon for managers to be successful, clear-eyed and clear-headed. It is also a pillar of management.