以检测和诊断艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染的技术为例,对专利分析的技术预见能力进行检验,并检验利用专利预见产品的基本假设:专利申请在前,新产品上市在后。研究结论是专利分析可以进行中、短期的技术预见、产品预见和预见高新技术产品的国际贸易模式。 Taking the technology of detecting and diagnosing HIV infection as an example, we test the technical foresight ability of patent analysis and test the basic assumptions of using the patent to predict the products: before the patent application, the new product goes on the market. The conclusion of the research is that patent analysis can make medium and short-term technical foresight, and the products foresee and foresee the international trade pattern of high-tech products.