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本文首先从理论上推导了消费者同时考虑财富效应与寿命不确定情况下的跨期最优消费路径。理论分析发现:(1)消费增长率与财富的平均消费倾向是正相关;(2)当消费者是风险厌恶且对社会地位比较关注时,利率对消费增长率的影响是负的或没有影响;(3)当消费者是风险厌恶时,收入财富比对消费增长率的影响方向是负的。然后利用我国1996-2012年间的24个省市、自治区的省际面板数据从地域与时间两个维度进行实证分析,为理论结果提供了经验证据。最后为提高我国居民消费提供了一些政策建议。
This paper firstly deduces theoretically the optimal intertemporal optimal consumption path when consumers consider the wealth effect and life expectancy at the same time. The theoretical analysis shows that: (1) the growth rate of consumption is positively correlated with the average propensity to consume of wealth; (2) when consumers are risk averse and pay more attention to social status, the impact of interest rates on the growth rate of consumption is negative or not; (3) When consumers are risk-averse, the impact of income wealth over consumption growth rate is negative. Then we use the provincial panel data of 24 provinces and autonomous regions in our country from 1996 to 2012 to do the empirical analysis from the geographical and temporal dimensions, which provides empirical evidence for the theoretical results. Finally, some suggestions on how to improve the consumption of residents in our country are provided.