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本文基于产业结构调整具有内生性特征和终端消费随居民收入水平提高具有规律性变化两个基本理念,通过对先进经济体发展经验的实证分析和对我国经济投入-产出结构的分析,量化分析了消费规模及其结构对我国产业结构变化的效果;预测了纯消费拉动下我国未来产业结构演进的特征与二氧化碳强度的发展趋势。研究结果表明:(1)消费规模的扩大与消费结构的升级将是未来我国产业结构优化的主要驱动力之一;(2)为完成碳强度减排目标,必须通过能源需求侧管理项目的实施,引导人们向“低能耗、低排放”的消费模式转变。
Based on the two basic concepts of endogenous characteristics of industrial structure adjustment and end-use consumption increasing with the income level of residents, this paper analyzes the experience of advanced economies through empirical analysis of China’s economic input-output structure and quantitative analysis The effect of consumption scale and its structure on the change of industrial structure in China; the evolution of China’s future industrial structure and the development trend of carbon dioxide intensity are predicted under the guidance of pure consumption. The results show that: (1) The expansion of consumption scale and the upgrading of consumption structure will be one of the major driving forces for the optimization of industrial structure in China in the future. (2) In order to fulfill the carbon intensity reduction target, we must pass the implementation of energy demand-side management project , Leading people to “low-power, low-emission” mode of consumption change.