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针对传统四阶段法在我国城市群中存在调查范围广、数据获取难的现状,以山东半岛城市群中几个经济与交通联系紧密的城市为例,在不进行大规模OD调查的前提下,通过端点城市的统计指标进行相关分析、主成份和因子分析,采用直接建模法进行城际客流需求预测模型研究。研究结果表明,影响城际出行量的指标是人口和经济指标,代表了城市区位势能,适用于城际出行预测的模型是空间相互作用模型。以空间相互作用模型家族中威尔逊基于最大熵的引力模型为基础,建立了基于区位势能的城市群城际客流需求预测模型,根据样本城市群中城市之间的出行量进行了模型参数的标定和误差分析。
In view of the fact that the traditional four-stage method has a wide range of investigation and difficult data acquisition in China’s urban agglomeration, taking several cities with close economic and traffic connections in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as an example, under the premise of not conducting large-scale OD surveys, Through the correlation analysis, principal component and factor analysis of the statistical index of the end-point cities, the direct modeling method is used to study the inter-city passenger flow demand forecasting model. The results show that the indexes that affect the amount of inter-city trips are population and economic indicators, which represent the potential energy of urban areas. The model suitable for inter-city travel forecasting is a model of spatial interaction. Based on Wilson’s gravity model based on maximum entropy in the family of spatial interaction models, a prediction model of inter-city passenger flow demand based on potential energy of a city group is established. According to the traffic volume among the cities in the sample city group, Error Analysis.