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对美联储来说,2014年是一个过渡年。美联储不仅人事上进行大换血,而且迎来了政策上的转向。美联储正逐步退出超宽松的货币工具,逐步向常规政策和严格监管迈进,同时又要准确引导市场对短期利率走向的预期。不过经济学家们认为,尽管美国退出QE的步伐比较温和、过程可预期,但仍然引发国际资本大量逃离新兴市场,或终结新兴经济体快速发展的时代,在基本面良好、积极调整结构与赤字扩大、严重依赖外债的两类发展中国家之间划出一道分水岭。
For the Fed, 2014 is a year of transition. The Fed not only made a major shake-up in personnel but also ushered in a policy shift. The Federal Reserve is gradually withdrawing from ultra-loose monetary instruments and gradually moving toward regular policies and strict supervision while accurately guiding the market to anticipate the direction of short-term interest rates. However, economists believe that even though the pace of withdrawal of QE from the United States is relatively mild and the process is predictable, it still leads to an era when a large number of international capitals have fled emerging markets or the rapid development of emerging economies has been terminated. The fundamentals are good and the structure and deficits are actively adjusted Expanding and seriously relying on foreign debt.