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建立地下水脆弱性评价的DRASTICH模型,辨析各个参数的不确定性特征,采用随机模拟方法同时对随机性参数和模糊性参数模拟赋值。分别对模糊性参数和脆弱性指数统计值设立具有概率分布意义的置信水平和百分位,得到多重地下水脆弱性的指数区间,在此基础上,分别绘制地下水脆弱性的保守分布图和冒险分布图,并对研究区地下水脆弱性分布状况进行分析。结果表明:(1)以模糊区间形式表示的地下水脆弱性评价结果,能反映多种不确定因素综合影响下的地下水脆弱性客观实际情况,可提供更多可靠性方面的信息;(2)以软区划方式制作地下水脆弱性分布图,保留了不确定性客观存在的事实,可给予决策者更多参考信息和调整余地;(3)地下水脆弱性软区划分布图显示:保守分布的脆弱性程度总体要高于冒险分布,置信水平选择越高,冒险分布与保守分布的空间分布差异越接近,且与最大可能性分布情况越接近;(4)研究区地下水脆弱性分布具有明显的空间集聚现象,地下水高脆弱性区域主要集聚在下辽河平原中部和南部地区,低脆弱性区域一般分布在下辽河平原东、西两侧地区。
The DRASTICH model of groundwater vulnerability assessment is established, the uncertainty characteristics of each parameter are analyzed, and the stochastic simulation method is used to simulate the randomness parameter and fuzzy parameter at the same time. The confidence level and percentile of probability distribution are established respectively for the fuzzy parameter and vulnerability index statistics, and the index interval of multiple groundwater vulnerability is obtained. On this basis, the conservative distribution of groundwater vulnerability and risk distribution Figure, and analysis of the distribution of groundwater vulnerability in the study area. The results show that: (1) The evaluation results of groundwater vulnerability expressed in the fuzzy interval can reflect the actual situation of groundwater vulnerability under the combined influence of various uncertainties and provide more reliable information. (2) Soft ground zoning map of production of groundwater vulnerability, retained the fact that the objective existence of uncertainty, decision makers can give more reference information and adjust the room; (3) groundwater vulnerability soft zoning map shows: the degree of vulnerability of the conservative distribution (4) The spatial distribution of groundwater vulnerability in the study area has obvious spatial agglomeration phenomenon (P <0.05), which is higher than that of the risk distribution. The higher the choice of confidence level, the closer the spatial distribution of risk distribution and the conservative distribution is, and the closer it is to the maximum likelihood distribution. The high groundwater vulnerability areas are mainly concentrated in the central and southern areas of the Lower Liaohe River Plain. Low vulnerability areas are generally distributed in the east and west sides of the Lower Liaohe River Plain.