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基于DPSIR模型框架,构建起低碳经济发展评价指标体系,采用专家打分法、熵权法、线性加权法相结合的方法,对长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化进行定量评价,探讨长沙市低碳经济发展的路径。结果表明,长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化过程中,驱动力子系统评价指数呈稳步上升的发展态势,由2000的0.040 6上升到2013年的0.166 5;压力子系统评价指数个别年份有小幅下降,但总体增长趋势明显;状态子系统评价指数持续降低,2013年下降趋势得以遏制;影响子系统评价指数经历先降后升的发展阶段后,2013年再次回落;响应子系统评价指数经前期的波浪式增减后快速稳步提升。2000-2005年系统综合评价指数基本稳定在0.36左右,长沙市经济低碳化经过前期低水平均衡阶段后,系统综合评价指数由2005年的0.380 6持续稳步增长到2013年的0.680 5。研究表明,长沙市低碳经济发展水平尽管实现了等级跨越,但目前尚处于中高碳经济发展的起步阶段,仍有极大的提升空间。因此,优化产业结构和能源消费结构,倡导低碳生产、生活方式,增加碳汇能力,是长沙市低碳经济未来发展方向。
Based on the DPSIR model framework, an evaluation index system for low-carbon economy development was constructed. The method of expert scoring, entropy and linear weighting was used to quantitatively evaluate the development of low-carbon economy in Changsha. The path of development. The results show that during the process of low-carbon economic development in Changsha, the driving force subsystem evaluation index showed a steady upward trend, rising from 0.0406 in 2000 to 0.166 5 in 2013. The pressure subsystem evaluation index decreased slightly in individual years , But the trend of overall growth was obvious. The index of state subsystem continued to decrease, and the downward trend was restrained in 2013. The index of influence subsystem fell down again after the development phase of the system began to decline in 2013. Response subsystem index After the wave increase and decrease rapidly and steadily. From 2000 to 2005, the comprehensive evaluation index of the system was basically stable at about 0.36. After the low-carbon economy of Changsha was low-equilibrium in the early period, the comprehensive evaluation index of the system continued to grow steadily from 0.3806 in 2005 to 0.6805 in 2013. The research shows that although the development level of low-carbon economy in Changsha is leveled, it is still in the initial stage of development of medium and high-carbon economy and there is still much room for improvement. Therefore, optimizing the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, advocating low-carbon production, lifestyles and increasing carbon sequestration are the future directions for the development of low-carbon economy in Changsha.