本文从动力学角度,把要预报的场视为叠加在历史相似上的一个小扰动,建立了一个以动力学为基础考虑了地气之间耦合相互作用的相似-动力季节长期数值预报模式.利用该模式进行了1981—1988年共8年的季节预报试验.预报均由冬季1月开始预报至夏季8月.预报结果的统计表明,模式具有一定的季节预报能力,其预报准确率高于统计相似预报. This paper considers the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superimposed on historical similarities from a kinetic point of view and establishes a long-term numerical model of similar-dynamic seasons that takes into account the coupling interaction between ground and geodynamics based on dynamics. Using this model, a total of eight years of 1981-2008 season forecasting experiments were carried out, with the forecast from the beginning of winter in January to the summer of August. The forecast results show that the model has some seasonal forecasting ability and the prediction accuracy is higher than Statistical similarity forecast.