论文部分内容阅读
采用HBV水文模型,对长江源区有冰川覆盖的冬克玛底河流域日径流进行了模拟试验研究.使用冬克玛底河流域周边4个有长期观测资料的气象站日气温、日降水数据,结合流域内自动气象站实测数据,应用多元回归法插值恢复了流域1955—2004年日气温数据,应用降水梯度与反距离权重相结合的方法恢复了流域1955—2004年日降水数据.采用数据质量较好的2004/2005年度和2006/2007年度两个物质平衡年水文气象数据进行模型参数的率定,应用2005/2006年度和2007/2008年度水文气象数据进行模型参数的检验.在确定模型能较好的模拟流域年月径流深的前提下,采用率定好的模型参数和恢复的气象资料,恢复了1955—2004年冬克玛底河流域的年径流深;依据水量平衡原理,得到流域冰川物质平衡变化.结果表明:1955—2008年冰川物质平衡呈亏损趋势,平均-136.0mm.a-1;年径流深呈波动增加趋势,平均增加5.61mm.a-1.径流深的增加量中约34%是因为降水增加所致,66%是因为温度升高导致冰川消融加剧所致.
This paper uses the HBV hydrological model to simulate the daily runoff of the glacier-covered Dongkemadi River in the source region of the Yangtze River.Using the daily temperature and daily precipitation data of four weather stations with long-term observational data around the Dongkmamaidi River Basin, , Combined with the measured data from the automatic weather station in the basin, the daily temperature data of the basin from 1955 to 2004 were restored by multivariate regression interpolation method, and the daily precipitation data of the basin from 1955 to 2004 were recovered by using the method of precipitation gradient and inverse distance weight.Using the data Good quality 2004/2005 and 2006/2007 hydrometeorological data for two material balance rate model parameters, the use of hydrological and meteorological data in 2005/2006 and 2007/2008 model parameters test.Determination of model Under the precondition of simulating the runoff depth of the basin in year and year, the annual runoff depth of the Kemadi River basin from 1955 to 2004 was restored by using the model parameters and the recovered meteorological data. Based on the water balance principle, The results showed that the material balance of glaciers showed a depletion trend between 1955 and 2008 with an average of -136.0 mm.a-1. The annual runoff depth showed a trend of increasing fluctuations Increase 5.61mm.a-1. Increase the amount of runoff of about 34% due to increased precipitation caused by 66% due to increase in temperature leads to increased glacial melting due.