论文部分内容阅读
首先对1995—2010年香港四大支柱产业的演变趋势进行分析和评价。然后对香港四大支柱产业与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,认为四大支柱产业与经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系。接着对不同产业的产出弹性进行估计,发现贸易及物流业、专业服务及其他工商支援服务业的产出弹性较大,而旅游业拉动经济增长的作用并不明显。最后计算了四大支柱产业各自对经济增长的贡献率,得出的基本结论是:2004年以来,贸易及物流业对经济增长的贡献率呈现下降的趋势;旅游业对经济增长的贡献率最小,但是处于快速上升的阶段。
First of all, the evolution of the four pillar industries in Hong Kong from 1995 to 2010 was analyzed and evaluated. Then we test the relationship between the four pillar industries and economic growth in Hong Kong and think there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the four pillar industries and economic growth. Then, we estimate the output elasticity of different industries and find that the output elasticity of the trade and logistics industry, professional services and other business support services are large. However, the role of tourism in stimulating economic growth is not obvious. Finally, the contribution rates of the four pillar industries to economic growth are calculated. The basic conclusion is drawn: the contribution rate of the trade and logistics industry to economic growth shows a decreasing trend since 2004; the contribution rate of tourism to economic growth is the smallest , But in a rapidly rising phase.