论文部分内容阅读
“2045年,当计算机智能超越人类。”在库兹韦尔著作《奇点临近》中译本的封页上写着这样一句话。这本书是2005年的畅销书,如今算来,离库兹韦尔预测的时间还有30年。这一个预测结果得自库兹韦尔的加速回报定律(Lawof Accelerating Returns),该定律认为人类社会是加速发展的,一个更加发达的社会本身具备的继续发展的能力也更强,按照这条定律,2000年的发展速度是20世纪平均发展速度的5倍,
“In 2045, when computer intelligence surpasses humanity,” wrote a sentence on the cover page of the Chinese translation of Kuzwell’s Oddness Near. This book, a 2005 bestseller, is now 30 years away from the time-forecast of Kurzweil. The result of this prediction is drawn from Kuzwell’s Law of Accelerating Returns, which holds that human society is accelerating and that a more developed society has a stronger ability to continue developing itself. According to this law In 2000, the rate of development was five times that of the average rate of development in the 20th century.