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本文从理论上分析了影响中国股市市盈率的宏观因素,计算出了中国股市理论市盈率水平,同时结合实际市盈率检验了市盈率指标在股市投资中的有效性。结果显示:中国股市市盈率受利率因素的影响最大,其理论均值在32倍左右,利用理论市盈率和实际市盈率的偏差对上证指数的走势有较好的预测作用。
This paper analyzes the macroscopical factors that affect the price-earnings ratio of the Chinese stock market theoretically, calculates the theoretical PE ratio of the Chinese stock market, and tests the validity of the price-earnings ratio index in the stock market with the actual price-earnings ratio. The results show that the price-earnings ratio of China’s stock market is most affected by the interest rate. The theoretical average value is about 32 times. Using the deviation between the theoretical price-earnings ratio and the actual price-earnings ratio, the price-earnings ratio of the Chinese stock market is expected to have a better forecast.