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云计算的出现极大颠覆了现有信息技术使用模式,其显著的成本节约效应将会大幅度降低企业的信息化门槛,从而推动工业化与信息化的深度融合,进而产生积极的宏观经济效应。然而,理论上至今还没有在这方面展开深入研究。因此,本文针对云计算能将企业信息化固定成本转换为可变成本的特征,采用基于内生市场结构的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)来研究云计算在中小企业中推广应用对我国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,以2014年数据为基准,云计算技术扩散保守估计未来五年将会促进我国GDP增长0.42~0.79%,就业增长0.06%~0.13%,新创造规模以上中小企业数目增长1.44%~2.82%,而且对欠发达地区经济增长的促进作用要高于发达地区。最后根据研究结论,对云计算技术发展提出具有针对性的政策建议。
The emergence of cloud computing has greatly subverted the existing information technology usage model, and its significant cost-saving effect will significantly reduce the threshold of enterprise information to promote the depth of industrialization and information integration, and then have a positive macroeconomic effect. However, in theory, no further study has been conducted in this respect. Therefore, in this paper, cloud computing can transform the fixed cost of enterprise informatization into the feature of variable cost. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) based on endogenous market structure is adopted to study the application of cloud computing in promoting the application of SMEs in China’s economy The impact of growth. The results show that using the 2014 data as a benchmark, the conservative estimation of the proliferation of cloud computing technology in the next five years will promote 0.42-0.79% of GDP growth and 0.06% -0.13% of employment growth in China in the next five years, while the number of SMEs above designated size will increase by 1.44% 2.82%, but also to enhance the economic growth in underdeveloped areas than the developed regions. Finally, according to the conclusion of the research, this paper puts forward the targeted policy suggestions on the development of cloud computing technology.