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目的探讨深圳市手足口病(hand,foot and mouth disease,HFMD)时空聚集性特征,为今后制定针对性的预防策略与措施提供依据。方法计算深圳市各街道手足口病发病率,应用回顾性时空扫描统计量分析深圳市2014年1月1日~2014年12月31日基于街道尺度手足口病时空聚集性。结果深圳市2014年手足口病发病例数为49 385例,深圳市街道手足口病的最高发病率达到1 873.00/10万,街道最低发病率为13.44/10万,各街道手足口病发病率差异有统计学意义(x~2=1 289.36,P<0.001)。通过回顾性时空扫描分析发现,2014年深圳地区存在21个聚集区域,共包含了29个街道,疫情出现时间主要集中在5月份,发生时间与深圳市疫情高峰时段相一致。结论时空重排扫描统计量能够有效地显示出手足口病聚集性情况,包括聚集时间段及地域,为以后针对性的开展疾病预防控制工作提供了科学依据和参考。
Objective To explore the spatial and temporal clustering characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shenzhen, and to provide the basis for the formulation of targeted prevention strategies and measures in the future. Methods The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in each street in Shenzhen was calculated and the spatio-temporal aggregation of HFMD based on street scale was analyzed by retrospective time-space scanning statistics from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 in Shenzhen City. Results The number of HFMD cases in Shenzhen in 2014 was 49 385 cases. The highest incidence rate of HFMD in Shenzhen was 1873.00 / 100000. The lowest street incidence rate was 13.44 / 100000. The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease The difference was statistically significant (x ~ 2 = 1 289.36, P <0.001). The retrospective time-space scanning analysis found that there were 21 gathering areas in Shenzhen in 2014, covering a total of 29 streets. The outbreak time mainly concentrated in May and the time coincided with the peak period of epidemic in Shenzhen. Conclusion Spatial and temporal rearrangement scan statistics can effectively show the aggregation of hand-foot-mouth disease, including the aggregation time and area, which provides a scientific basis and reference for future disease prevention and control work.