害虫发生量预测是当前农业生产中急待解决的一个问题。目前应用比较普遍的是依据有效基数预测法,一般对一化性害虫和多化性害虫的越冬代或第一代应用较多,而对以后各世代的预测,则多停滞在发生趋势的估计上。作者通过数年系统测报和棉铃虫自然种群生命表的研究,现提出残虫基数预测法商榷于下: Prediction of pest occurrence is an urgent issue in agricultural production. At present, it is generally applied that based on the effective base prediction method, the overwintering generation or the first generation of the generalized pests and the plurality of pests are generally applied more, and the prediction of the future generations is more stagnant in the estimation of the occurrence tendency on. The author through years of systematic measurement and natural populations of cotton bollworm life table study, the proposed method of prediction of the number of stems in the following on the next: