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[目的]运用移动平均法对麻疹发病进行预测,为麻疹防控提供参考,为传染病预测提供方法学借鉴。[方法]利用某部2005~2009年麻疹发病数据,采用二次移动平均法,建立麻疹月发病预测模型,对2010年各月发病数进行预测,并对预测效果进行评价。[结果]麻疹月发病预测模型为:Yt+T=(8.048 6+0.869 9T)×1.045×8LT,2010年各月预测发病数与实际发病数的相对误差除2月和10月较大外,其余月份的平均相对误差为0.5385。[结论]应用二次移动平均数法对麻疹月发病的预测效果良好,可为麻疹提前防控提供依据。该预测法操作简单,预测效果好,并将季节因素考虑进去,是一种实用的传染病预测预报方法。
[Objective] The purpose of this study was to predict the incidence of measles by using the moving average method, provide a reference for the prevention and control of measles, and provide a methodology for the prediction of infectious diseases. [Method] With the measles incidence data of a certain department from 2005 to 2009, the second moving average method was used to establish the monthly incidence forecast of measles. The forecast of the incidence of each month in 2010 was made and the prediction effect was evaluated. [Result] The prediction model of monthly incidence of measles was: Yt + T = (8.048 6 + 0.869 9T) × 1.045 × 8LT. The relative error of predicted incidence and actual incidence of each month in 2010 was higher than that in February and October, The average relative error for the remaining months was 0.5385. [Conclusion] The prediction of monthly incidence of measles by the quadratic moving average method is good, which may provide evidence for prevention and control of measles in advance. The forecasting method is simple, predictive effect is good, and seasonal factors into account, is a practical method of forecasting and forecasting of infectious diseases.