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在新产品开发方案选择问题中,决策者在决定研发新产品之前通常会对新产品的预期收益有所要求,而新产品开发方案的预期收益与其研发成功与否以及所面临的市场状态的不确定性有关,因此,决策者在新产品开发方案选择时往往会表现出失望规避的行为特征,如何考虑决策者的行为特征并选择出令决策者感到最为满意的新产品开发方案,有关这方面的研究值得关注。针对研发结果和市场状态不确定情形下的新产品开发方案选择问题,提出了一种考虑决策者失望规避的决策分析方法。在该方法中,首先计算不同市场状态下新产品研发成功与失败情景对应的预期收益,并对预期收益和预期收益目标进行规范化处理;然后,通过构建效用函数刻画决策者欣喜与失望的心理感知;进一步地,通过计算每个新产品开发方案的综合效用值来得到方案的排序结果。最后,通过一个算例说明了提出方法的可行性与有效性。
In the selection of new product development options, policymakers often demand the expected benefits of a new product before deciding to develop a new product, and the prospective benefits of a new product development program, their success in research and development, and the market conditions they face Therefore, policymakers often exhibit disappointment and evasion behavior characteristics when choosing new product development solutions. How to consider the behavior characteristics of decision makers and select the new product development programs that make the decision makers feel most satisfied? The research is worth attention. Aiming at the selection of new product development options under the condition of the R & D results and the uncertain market conditions, a decision analysis method considering the decision makers’ disappointment and evasion is proposed. In this method, the expected returns corresponding to the successful and the failed scenarios of new product development under different market conditions are first calculated, and the expected benefits and expected return targets are normalized. Then, the utility function is used to characterize the psychological perceptions of the delinquent and disappointed decision-makers ; Further, by calculating the comprehensive utility value of each new product development program to get the program’s ranking results. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.