Since missiles are main threat against aircrafts in air war,a model is proposed for calculating the aircraft survivability to a missile.The hit characteristic of aircraft to a missile is analyzed,and then Monte Carlo method is applied to generate missile detonation location according to its distribution rule.In addition,based on the analysis of fragment trajectory and critical components,the intersection point of these two is determined.Then the kill probability of critical component to a fragment can be calculated,and the aircraft survivability to a missile is obtained accordingly.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated.Simulation results show that this method captures the basic effects of missile detonation locations on aircraft survivability,which may provide an effective reference to aircraft survivability research. Since missiles are main threat against aircrafts in air war, a model is proposed for calculating the aircraft survivability to a missile. The hit characteristic of aircraft to a missile is analyzed, and then Monte Carlo method is applied to generate missile detonation locations according to its distribution rule. In addition, based on the analysis of fragment trajectory and critical components, the intersection point of these two is determined. Chen the kill probability of critical component to a fragment can be calculated, and the aircraft survivability to a missile is to obtain consequential .Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated. Simulation results show this this method captures the basic effects of missile detonation locations on aircraft survivability, which may provide an effective reference to aircraft survivability research.