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关于政府债务与经济增长之间存在的必然联系,在当前的研究中,对两者之间的影响关系存在不同的观点,而有关利率层面的研究是比较少的。文章从利率传导机制出发,通过构建传导模型,选取50个国家1984—2014年30年间的面板数据,通过检验单位根,并选取合适的滞后阶数,采用面板VAR方法进行了估算,最后结合脉冲响应分析,得到了政府债务在利率角度与经济增长之间存在的关系。分析结果显示,利率会政府债务的增长而变大,而变大后的利率会抑制投资,导致经济增长率减小,依据该结果,可以从政策层面做出科学调整。
With regard to the inevitable connection between government debt and economic growth, in the current study, there are different views on the impact of the two. However, studies on interest rates are relatively rare. Based on the conduction mechanism of interest rate, the panel data of 50 countries from 1984 to 2014 were selected by constructing the conduction model. The unit root was selected and the suitable lag order was chosen. The VAR method was used to estimate the panel. Finally, In response, the relationship between government debt and the economic growth is obtained from the angle of interest rate. The analysis shows that the interest rate will increase the growth of government debt, while the enlarged interest rate will curb investment, resulting in a decrease in economic growth rate. Based on this result, we can make scientific adjustments from the policy level.