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本文提供了1982年12月、1983年5月在景洪东北先后发生的5.8、5.3、5.7级地震及1983年6月莱州7.0级地震的中期、短期、临震预报的实况和主要依据。中期预报是通过∑E(1/2)释放速率变化出现异常,确定本区处于释放加速段,用最优分割等周期分析法处理得该区活动段将延迟到1983年6月底。利用地震活动位置演变确定活动地点在景洪—江城以南地区。短期预报主要根据孕震过程中依次出现的三个北东向地震条带,b值从1.3下降到0.55,并参考了省内大范围Rn值突变异常,推算出未来主震将大于6.5级。按文献[1]广义调制模式思路,确定震源体处于受调状态,进而外推对莱州7.0级地震作出临震预报。
This paper provides the real and main evidences of the medium-, short-term and quake-onset forecasts of 5.8, 5.3 and 5.7 earthquakes that occurred in northeastern Jinghong in December 1982 and May 1983, and the M 7.0 7.0 earthquake in June 1983. Mid-term forecast is through the ΣE (1/2) release rate changes abnormalities, to determine the region in the release of acceleration, the use of optimal segmentation and other periodic analysis of the active section of the district will be delayed until the end of June 1983. Use of the location of seismic activity to determine the location of activities in Jinghong - Jiangnan area. The short-term forecast mainly based on the three northeasteric seismic bands appearing in turn during the seismogenic process, the b value decreased from 1.3 to 0.55, and with reference to the large range Rn mutation abnormity in the province, it is estimated that the main shock will be greater than 6.5 in the future. According to the literature [1] generalized modulation mode of thinking, to determine the source body in the adjusted state, and then extrapolation of the Laizhou 7.0 earthquake to make quake prediction.