论文部分内容阅读
出口贸易持续期的长度反映了一国出口贸易联系的稳定性,是国际贸易领域研究的新议题。依据生存分析法,本文选取1992~2011年中国与37个主要出口目的地的样本数据,对出口贸易联系持续期变动及影响因素进行了量化分析。研究表明,中国出口贸易持续期较短,且生存概率呈快速下降趋势,短期内降低对发达国家出口过度依赖困难较大,而通过积极参加区域经济合作,并重视现有市场的维护将对出口贸易的稳定发展起到更为显著的作用。
The length of the duration of export trade reflects the stability of the export trade relations of a country and is a new topic of study in the field of international trade. Based on the survival analysis method, this paper selects the sample data of China and 37 major export destinations from 1992 to 2011, and quantitatively analyzes the changes of the duration of export trade links and the influencing factors. The study shows that the duration of China’s export trade is short and the probability of survival is rapidly declining. In the short term, it is more difficult to reduce over-reliance on developed countries’ exports. However, by actively participating in regional economic cooperation and paying attention to the existing market, The stable development of trade has played a more significant role.