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基于向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解法,对1980年～2006年中国经济增长与能源消费相互作用的动态特征进行系统分析,并进一步探讨了相互冲击时各自的贡献率和重要程度。研究结果表明:①我国三次产业经济增长与能源消费之间不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,第一产业和第三产业能源消费对经济发展的累积效应是负的,不利于其快速发展,而且这两个产业经济增长对能源消费的正向影响作用不显著,第二产业经济发展和能源消费之间具有正向影响;②短期内,三次产业经济对自身冲击的贡献率保持在94%以上,能源消费对经济增长的贡献率并不高;③现阶段,我国在继续强调优化产业结构和能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率的同时,关键是建立和完善能源需求的安全保障体系,以合适的价格保证中国能源需求,减弱能源对经济增长的“瓶颈”作用。
Based on vector autoregressive model, impulse response function and forecast variance decomposition method, the dynamic characteristics of the interaction between economic growth and energy consumption in China from 1980 to 2006 are systematically analyzed and the contribution rate and importance of each interaction are also discussed . The results show that: ① There is no long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in the three industries in our country. The cumulative effect of energy consumption on economic development in the primary and tertiary industries is negative, which is detrimental to its rapid development. The positive impact of the economic growth of the two industries on energy consumption is not significant, the positive impact of the economic development and energy consumption of the secondary industry; ② the contribution rate of the three industrial economies to their own shocks remains above 94% in the short term, At the present stage, while continuing to emphasize the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure and improvement of energy efficiency, the key is to establish and improve the safety and security system for energy demand, with appropriate Price guarantee China’s energy demand, weaken the “bottleneck” effect of energy on economic growth.