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随着公路和市政基础建设设施的不断发展,市场对沥青的需求越来越大,尤其是对高等级道路沥青的需求逐年增加。但受中国大陆沥青自身生产条件的限制,国内沥青无法完全满足市场需求,因此进口沥青份额不断增加。面对日益激励的竞争市场,中国石油辽河石化分公司在充分掌握了国内沥青市场现状前提下,运用季节指数分析方法对沥青销量的季节变动进行了分析,并在季节变动规律的基础上,对2003年后几个月的沥青销售量进行了季节预测。通过对预测值和真实销量进行对比,发现并总结出了一套可资借鉴的宝贵依据。
With the continuous development of highways and municipal infrastructure, the demand for asphalt in the market is getting larger and larger, and the demand for high grade road asphalt is increasing year by year. However, due to the restrictions on the production conditions of asphalt in mainland China, the domestic bitumen can not fully meet the market demand, therefore, the share of imported bitumen is continuously increasing. Faced with the increasingly competitive competitive market, PetroChina Liaohe Petrochemical Branch under the premise of the full grasp of the status of the domestic asphalt market, the use of seasonal index analysis of seasonal changes in asphalt sales were analyzed and based on the law of seasonal changes, the right Asphalt sales in the latter part of 2003 were seasonally predicted. By comparing the predicted value with the actual sales volume, we found and summarized a set of valuable evidences that can be used for reference.