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采用了1980—2013年的年度数据,对我国固定资产投资与GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析。由于政治因素会影响两者长期均衡关系,因此两者关系存在突变点,因而采用包含虚拟变量的线性回归模型并不能准确的反应两者之间的动态关系。所以本文运用非参数回归模型,对改革开放后的固定资产投资和国内生产总值的关系,分别建立非参数回归预测模型以及参数线性回归模型,并加以对比,得出结论:非参数回归预测模型的拟合结果较好。
Employing the annual data from 1980 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between China’s fixed asset investment and GDP. Because political factors will affect the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, there is a mutation point in the relationship between the two. Therefore, using the linear regression model containing the dummy variables can not accurately reflect the dynamic relationship between the two. Therefore, this paper uses the non-parametric regression model to establish the non-parametric regression model and the parametric linear regression model for the relationship between the fixed assets investment and the GDP after the reform and opening up, and concludes that the non-parametric regression model The fitting result is better.