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对香港1987～2007年时间序列数据单位根检验的基础上,验证对外贸易、经济增长与产业结构三者之间的Granger因果关系。研究发现,香港包括港产品出口、转口和进口在内的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在双向Granger因果关系;同时经济增长与产业结构之间也存在双向因果关系。通过对香港的研究进一步发现,香港地区对外贸易与经济增长,经济增长与产业结构之间能互为因果形成较好的经济运行状态,很大程度上得益于“一国两制”在香港的成功实践与内地改革开放的成功结合。
Based on the unit root test of time series data from 1987 to 2007 in Hong Kong, the Granger causality between foreign trade, economic growth and industrial structure is verified. The study found that there is a two-way Granger causality between Hong Kong’s foreign trade and economic growth, including the exportation, re-export and import of Hong Kong products. Meanwhile, there is also a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Through further research on Hong Kong, we can find that the economic operation, economic growth, economic growth and industrial structure in Hong Kong can each be a better causal link between economic development and operation, largely due to the “one country, two systems” principle in Hong Kong The successful combination with the successful reform and opening up in the Mainland.