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根据9年定点定品种的病情观察资料,分别推导出针对早、中、迟熟品种的多元回归测报式。自变量分别为各品种盛花期前10天(早熟品种为20天)的平均气温、盛花期的雨日数和雨量。采用通径分析方法,结合病害发生的生态要求,阐明了测报式中各因子对病害的效应。测报因子的生物学含义明确,回归方程的显著性测验达极显著或显著水平。
Based on the observed data of the 9-year fixed-point varieties, multiple regression models for early, middle and late ripening varieties were deduced respectively. The independent variables were respectively the average temperature of the first 10 days of full flowering period of each variety (early maturing variety is 20 days), the number of rainy days of full flowering period and rainfall. Using the path analysis method, combined with the ecological requirements of disease occurrence, the effect of each factor on the disease is expounded. The biological meaning of the reporter factors is clear, and the significance test of the regression equation reaches an extremely significant or significant level.