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生物质能在缓解能源紧张,降低气候变化影响方面具有广阔的发展前景。农作物秸秆作为其丰富重要的原料之一,它的有效开发和利用,将对我国生物质资源的综合利用有重要影响。气候变化会影响农作物秸秆产量,本研究利用CERES作物模型模拟了基本气候BS情景下(1961年-1990年)和SRES温室气体排放方案下B2情景的(2011年-2100年)我国三大粮食作物水稻、小麦、玉米的秸秆生产量,分析并预测了未来气候变化对其秸秆生产量的影响,结果表明:①作物秸秆生产总量表现为先降低(2020s)后增加(2050s、2080s)的趋势,其中水稻的秸秆单产和总量将下降,而小麦和玉米的秸秆单产、总量则有增加趋势,尤其是小麦增加幅度更大;②未来气候变化将增大作物秸秆生产总量的年际波动,影响秸秆利用量的稳定性;③华北地区是未来三大作物秸秆总量增加的主要区域,有利于秸秆资源的开发和利用,而东北的东部地区秸秆总量表现为大幅度的降低。本文成果属初步研究,存在一定的不确定性,今后需要继续深入探讨,逐步降低研究中的不确定性。
Biomass can have broad development prospects in alleviating energy shortage and reducing the impact of climate change. As one of the most important raw materials for crop straw, its effective development and utilization will have a significant impact on the comprehensive utilization of biomass resources in our country. Climate change will affect crop straw production. In this study, the CERES crop model was used to simulate the scenarios of the basic climate BS (1961-1990) and the SRES greenhouse gas emission scenario B2 (2011- 2100). The three major food crops The results showed that: (1) the total amount of crop straw production decreased first (2050s, 2080s) after 2020s (2050s, 2080s) , Of which the straw yield and total amount of rice will decline, while the yield of wheat and corn straw will increase, especially for wheat; ②The future climate change will increase the annual total crop stalk production Fluctuating and affecting the stability of utilization of straw; (3) North China is the main area for increasing the total amount of straw in the future, which is conducive to the development and utilization of straw resources. However, the total amount of straw in the eastern part of Northeast China shows a significant decrease. The results of this paper are preliminary studies, there is a certain degree of uncertainty, the future need to continue in-depth discussion, and gradually reduce the uncertainty of the study.