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地基的稳定在一定程度上可视为一模糊事件，由于影响地基承载力的各种因素常常表现出不同程度的随机变异性，地基承载力也具有随机变异性。本文用Vesic公式确定地基的极限承载力，并建立地基稳定的极限状态方程，进而利用概率理论与模糊数学建立地基失稳的模糊概率公式，对抗剪强度c，ф值的敏感性及安全系数与模糊失效概率之间的关系作了分析。
The stability of the foundation can be regarded as a fuzzy event to a certain extent. Because various factors affecting the bearing capacity of the foundation often show different degrees of random variability, the bearing capacity of the foundation also has a random variability. In this paper, Vesic formula is used to determine the ultimate bearing capacity of the foundation, and the limit state equation of the foundation stability is established. Then the probability probability theory and fuzzy mathematics are used to establish the fuzzy probability formula of foundation instability, and the sensitivity and safety factor of the shear strength c and threshold are determined. The relationship between the failure probability and the fuzzy failure rate was analyzed.