论文部分内容阅读
目的探测2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例时空聚集性,为南宁市HIV/AIDS的防控提供科学参考。方法从乡镇/街道办事处尺度上,对2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例报告发病率用泊松模型的时空扫描统计量(spatiotemporal scan statistics based on Poisson model)进行小尺度时空聚集性探测,并用地理信息系统(geographical information system,GIS)实现探测结果的可视化。结果 2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS高发的时空聚集区共有2个。其中主要聚集区的中心为横县云表镇,共27个乡镇,始于2010年,止于2014年(LLR=672.25,RR=4.39,P<0.001);次要聚集区以隆安县那桐镇为中心,共7个乡镇,始于2010年,止于2014年(LLR=405.34,RR=6.69,P<0.001)。结论 2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例具有时空聚集性,相关部门应该加强对60岁以上HIV/AIDS时空高发聚集区的防控工作。
Objective To explore the spatiotemporal aggregation of HIV / AIDS patients over the age of 60 from 2004 to 2014 in Nanning City, and to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of HIV / AIDS in Nanning. Methods From the township / subdistrict offices scale, the spatial and temporal aggregation of small-scale spatiotemporal scan statistics based on Poisson model was analyzed for the reported incidence of HIV / AIDS cases over the age of 60 from 2004 to 2014 in Nanning. Exploratory exploration and visualization of exploration results using a geographic information system (GIS). Results There were two spatiotemporal aggregation regions of HIV / AIDS over the age of 60 from 2004 to 2014 in Nanning. The main gathering area is located in Yunxiao Town, Heng County, with a total of 27 towns and townships, beginning in 2010 and ending in 2014 (LLR = 672.25, RR = 4.39, P <0.001) The town is a center of seven townships, beginning in 2010 and ending in 2014 (LLR = 405.34, RR = 6.69, P <0.001). Conclusion From 2004 to 2014, HIV / AIDS patients over the age of 60 in Nanning City had spatial and temporal clustering. Relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and control of HIV / AIDS-related areas with high incidence of HIV / AIDS over the age of 60 years.