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对于加工多种原油的炼油厂,原油调合调度可以改善进料原油性质,它对保证后续生产装置的平稳操作、先进控制的实施以及生产计划的完成具有重要意义。基于实际生产背景和需求,文献[4-5]提出了原油调合调度模型以及基于2层优化结构和序优化的求解方案。该方案中,原油掺炼序列和流量的混合优化问题转化为掺炼序列的采样和评价问题,它们分别涉及到算法的广度搜索和深度搜索,如何处理二者之间的平衡关系对于合理利用计算量并进一步提高算法效率具有重要意义。因此,作为衡量搜索深度和搜索广度的基础,本文对掺炼序列评价的分布规律进行了研究。在首先分析比较了仿真优化中参数评价与原油调合调度优化中序列评价的异同之后,本文通过蒙特卡洛仿真法统计分析了原油掺炼序列评价的分布变化规律,并利用威布尔分布对其进行了拟合。文章最后展示了基于威布尔分布描述的2个掺炼序列的评价比较,同时指出威布尔分布的参数拟合问题是接下来研究的重点。
For refineries that process a variety of crude oils, the blending of crude oil can improve the quality of the feed crude oil. It is of great significance to ensure the smooth operation of the follow-up production plant, the implementation of advanced control and the completion of the production plan. Based on actual production background and demand, literature [4-5] proposed a crude oil blending scheduling model and a solution based on two-layer optimization structure and order optimization. In this scheme, the hybrid optimization of crude oil blending sequence and flow is transformed into the sampling and evaluation of blending sequence. They involve the breadth search and depth search of the algorithm respectively. How to deal with the balance relationship between the two for the rational utilization calculation It is very important to improve the efficiency and efficiency of the algorithm. Therefore, as the basis of measuring the search depth and the breadth of search, this paper studies the distribution rules of the blending sequence evaluation. After analyzing the similarities and differences between the evaluation of parameters in simulation optimization and the sequence evaluation of crude oil blending and scheduling optimization, this paper analyzed and analyzed the variation regularity of the evaluation of crude oil blending sequence by Monte Carlo simulation method, Fits. Finally, the article shows the comparison and comparison of two blending sequences based on Weibull distribution, and points out that the parameter fitting of Weibull distribution is the next research focus.