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进入1998年以来,世界油价一路下跌.造成油价大幅下跌的原因是多方面的.既有生产和消费方面的结构性因素,也有产油国的政策性因素,但最根本的原因是世界石油市场供过于求.国际能源机构对世界能源所作的预测报告显示.1997年世界原油日供应量超过需求80万桶,1998年这一数字将大幅增加,达165万桶.目前世界石油的日产量大约为7700万桶,而预测1998年世界石油日需求量则从7530万桶下降为7510万桶.与此同时,为增加石油收入,一些产油国竞相增产和扩大出口,如欧佩克今年原油日产已达3117万桶.比规定的限额高出近400万桶.
Since 1998, world oil prices have been falling all the way, causing the sharp drop in oil prices for many reasons, including structural factors in production and consumption, and policy-making factors in oil-producing countries, but the most fundamental reason is that the world oil market Oversupply.IEA’s forecast report on world energy shows that the supply of world crude oil in 1997 surpassed the demand of 800,000 barrels a day and will sharply increase to 1.65 million barrels in 1998. At present, the world’s oil production is about 7,700 While the world petroleum demand is expected to drop from 75.3 million barrels to 75.1 million barrels in 1998. Meanwhile, some oil-producing countries are competing for increases in oil production and export expansion in order to increase their oil revenues. For instance, OPEC’s crude oil output this year has reached 3117 Million barrels, nearly 4 million barrels above the prescribed limit.