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美国是全球第一大经济体,美国经济的走势无疑对全球都具有巨大影响,我国也不例外。关于怎样估计纽约9.11事件后美国、世界与中国经济发展的走势,我认为有以下几点:一、今年以来,国内需求大幅提升,从投资看,一季度增长12%,二季度增长15%,7月份增长近18%,8月份增长近19%,消费增长率也略高于去年平均水平,但总体增长率却跟随出口增长曲线趋于下滑,说明中国经济增长的走势在目前阶段主要不取决于内需,而是外需。二、“九五”期间以来,中国的经济结构开始出现重大转型,主要是美、日、韩、台、港等的信息产业在沿海地区布局,使信息产业迅速成长为中国第一大产业。日、港、韩、台过去对美顺差,由此转为对中国大陆顺差,中国大陆对美贸易则出现巨大顺差,因此中国的经济增长,主要得益于信息产业的高速的增长,而信息产业的增长则得益于外需的增长,
The United States is the world’s largest economy. The U.S. economic trend undoubtedly has a tremendous impact on the world. Our country is no exception. As for how to estimate the trend of the economic development of the United States, the world and China after the 9/11 New York event, I think the following points: 1. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic demand has risen sharply. In terms of investment, the first quarter increased 12% and the second quarter increased 15% In July, the growth rate was nearly 18%, with an increase of nearly 19% in August. The growth rate of consumption was slightly higher than that of last year. However, the overall growth rate followed the trend of export growth. This shows that the trend of China’s economic growth is largely independent of the current stage In domestic demand, but external demand. 2. Since the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s economic structure has undergone a major transformation. The major changes are in the layout of the information industry in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong in the coastal areas, and the information industry has rapidly grown to become the largest in China industry. Since Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan used to make favorable surrender to the United States, they turned to surpassing China and surpassing the mainland trade with the United States. As a result, China’s economic growth was mainly attributed to the rapid growth of the information industry. Information The growth of the industry benefited from the growth of external demand.