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为研究滑坡预警预报指标,建立了31个典型岩质滑坡组成的滑坡数据库,基于滑坡数据库、工程类比和模糊综合评判方法开发了滑坡实例推理系统。首先将滑坡特征属性分为6大项:破坏模式、滑面倾角、滑面类型、边坡岩体结构、边坡倾角、滑坡的诱发因素(降雨、地下水、水库蓄水、开挖、爆破、地震),用11个特征值表示边坡的特征属性;其次采用比值法相似度计算理论在滑坡数据库中搜索与目标边坡最相似的滑坡,通过工程类比给出滑坡预警判据建议值;最后依据模糊综合评判模型修正建议值,得到预警判据确认值,形成滑坡实例推理系统。以锦屏一级水电站为例,通过计算找到了滑坡数据库中与锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡最为相似的5个滑坡实例;其中大冶铁矿狮子山滑坡和安家岭露天矿滑坡有较为完整的变形监测数据,深入分析类似边坡变形破坏过程,分4个阶段给出了锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡预警判据建议值;并建立边坡预警判据修正的模糊综合评判模型,修正相似边坡预警判据,给出锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡进入加速变形阶段的位移速率阀值的精确区间为1.0～1.2 mm/d。
In order to study the index of landslide warning and forecasting, a landslide database of 31 typical landslides was established. Based on landslide database, engineering analogy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, a landslide case inference system was developed. First of all, the characteristics of landslide characteristics are divided into six major categories: failure mode, sliding surface dip, sliding surface type, slope rock mass structure, slope inclination, landslide inducing factors (rainfall, groundwater, reservoir water storage, Earthquake), 11 eigenvalues are used to represent the characteristics of the slope. Secondly, the similarity calculation method of the ratio method is used to search the landslide database for the landslide which is most similar to the target slope, and the recommended value of the landslide early warning criterion is given by the engineering analogy. Finally According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the proposed value is revised to obtain the confirmation value of the early warning criterion, and a landslide case inference system is formed. Taking Jinping I Hydropower Station as an example, five landslides most similar to the left bank slope of Jinping I Hydropower Station have been found through calculation. Among them, the Shizi landslide of Daye Iron Mine and the landslide of Anjialing Open-pit Mine are relatively complete , The deformation monitoring data of the slope are analyzed deeply to analyze the deformation and failure process of similar slopes. The proposed value of early warning criterion for the left bank slope of Jinping I Hydropower Station is given in 4 stages, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the revision of slope warning criteria is established. Similar to the slope early warning criterion, the accurate range of the displacement rate threshold of the left bank slope of Jinping I Hydropower Station entering the accelerated deformation stage is 1.0-1.2 mm / d.