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为了提高雪荷载评估的准确性,利用极大似然法对雪荷载平稳二项随机概率分布模型进行参数估计.通过引入似然函数,使似然函数在某组参数上达到最大值,获得模型参数的极大似然估计.然后利用柯尔莫哥洛夫检验法对分布函数进行检验,并与矩法和耿贝尔法进行对比分析.结果表明,极大似然法在剩余方差Sf和拟合相对偏差Rf指标方面最优.进一步应用上述三种方法,基于沭阳县实测的历年最大积雪深度计算雪压,并与现行规范中的基本雪压进行对比,发现极大似然法计算结果合理可靠、整体效果最好,认为规范采用极大似然法对雪荷载进行参数估计更为合适.
In order to improve the accuracy of snow load assessment, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters of the snow stochastic bivariate stochastic probability distribution model.At the introduction of a likelihood function, the maximum likelihood of a set of parameters is obtained, and the model Then the Kolmogorov test was used to test the distribution function and compared with the moment method and the Gimbal method.The results showed that the maximum likelihood method has the best agreement with the residual variance Sf Combined with the relative deviation Rf indicators of the best.Further application of the above three methods, based on Shuyang County measured maximum snow depth over the years to calculate the snow pressure and compared with the current specification of the basic snow pressure and found that the maximum likelihood method results Reasonable and reliable, the overall effect is best, that the use of maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of snow load more appropriate.