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基于R&3D的框架,拓展了Tassey的技术风险曲线,分别从理论和实证两方面进行验证。在理论方面,综述了技术创新风险的典型性研究,从融合的角度探讨了技术创新风险的类型和水平,对示范和推广阶段的风险进行了综合评定。在实践方面,以洁净煤技术领域为例,选取了燃煤磁流体技术、增压流化床燃烧联合循环发电技术、多喷嘴对置式水煤浆气化技术作为典型案例进行成功与失败的对比研究。理论研究结果表明,示范阶段交织存在着多种类型、不同程度的风险,极易导致技术创新的失败。实证研究结果表明,(科学)技术就绪水平、市场和产业就绪水平、制度就绪水平是决定R&3D中前三个阶段成败的重要因素,应予以特别的关注和重视。
Based on the framework of R & 3D, Tassey’s technology risk curve is expanded and validated both theoretically and empirically. In the aspect of theory, this paper summarizes the typical research on the risk of technological innovation, discusses the types and levels of the risk of technological innovation from the perspective of integration, and makes a comprehensive assessment of the risks in the demonstration and promotion phases. In practice, taking the field of clean coal as an example, the paper compares the success and failure of coal-fired magnetic fluid technology, pressurized fluidized bed combustion combined cycle power generation technology and multi-nozzle opposed coal-water slurry gasification technology as a typical case the study. The result of theoretical research shows that there are many types and degrees of risk in the demonstration stage, which can easily lead to the failure of technological innovation. The empirical results show that the level of (science) technology readiness, market and industry readiness, and system readiness are important factors that determine the success or failure of the first three phases of R & 3D. Special attention and attention should be paid to this.