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本文研究了甘肃河西绿洲农业区1949—2000年生态足迹、生态承载力和生态盈余/赤字的动态变化。结果表明:河西全区的人均生态足迹1949—2000年呈递增趋势,从0.426hm2增加到2.158hm2。1949—1970年平均为0.693hm2,1975—1980年平均为1.029hm2,1985—2000年平均为2.288hm2;人均生态承载力由1949年的0.550hm2增加到2000年的1.762hm2,与人均生态足迹相比,增幅较小,增速亦慢。1949—1970年平均为0.782hm2,1975—2000年平均为1.715hm2;1949—1975年为生态盈余阶段,平均盈余为0.088hm2,1980年首次出现赤字,1985年又恢复盈余,到1991年后持续出现生态赤字,且赤字程度呈加速度负增长,1991—2000年平均赤字为0.258hm2。由此不难得出结论:河西区域发展正朝远离可持续的方向延展。
This paper studies the dynamic changes of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus / deficit in Hexi Oasis Agricultural Region in Gansu from 1949 to 2000. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Hexi region increased from 1949 to 2000, from 0.426 hm2 to 2.158 hm2. The average of 1.949-1970 was 0.693 hm2, and the average was 1.029 hm2 in 1975-1980. The average of 1985-2000 was 2.288hm2. The per capita ecological carrying capacity increased from 0.550hm2 in 1949 to 1.762hm2 in 2000, showing a small increase and slow growth compared with the per capita ecological footprint. The average was 0.782hm2 in 1949-1970 and 1.715hm2 in 1975-2000. The period from 1949-1975 was an ecological surplus with an average surplus of 0.088hm2. It first appeared in December 1980, and in 1985 it recovered its surplus and continued after 1991 There was an ecological deficit with a negative growth rate of acceleration. The average deficit in 1991-2000 was 0.258hm2. It is not hard to come to a conclusion: Hexi area development is moving away from the sustainable direction.