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目的对1977—2008年常熟市胃癌死亡趋势进行趋势分析。方法观察原始序列图特点、序列的随机性和平稳性,确定适宜的时间序列模型进行预测分析。结果 1977—2008年常熟市胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,模型为Xt=42.7471-0.7910t,系数呈显著性,估计2011年该市的胃癌死亡率15.85/10万。结论常熟市胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,可用直线模型预测该市的胃癌死亡率。
Objective To analyze the trend of gastric cancer death in 1977-2008 in Changshu city. Methods The characteristics of the original sequence graph, the randomness and stability of the sequence were observed, and the appropriate time series model was determined for predictive analysis. Results The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Changshu from 1977 to 2008 showed a decreasing trend. The model was Xt = 42.7471-0.7910t. The coefficient was significant. The estimated gastric cancer death rate in 2011 was 15.85 / 100000. Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Changshu is decreasing. The linear model can be used to predict the mortality of gastric cancer in this city.