【摘 要】
：
钢铁行业是我国重要的CO2排放源.作为典型的资源能源密集型产业,钢铁行业加快绿色低碳转型、尽早实现碳达峰并有效降碳,既是行业自身高质量发展的内在需要,也是支撑落实国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的客观要求.本文综合考虑经济社会发展、资源能源利用、工艺结构调整、低碳技术应用等因素影响,开展了基于情景分析的钢铁行业CO2排放达峰路径研究,对不同情景下钢铁行业CO2的排放趋势进行测算,识别钢铁行业CO2减排的主要驱动因素,判断推动钢铁行业碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定“双碳”目标背景下钢铁行业CO2排放控制策略提供参考.测
【机 构】
：
生态环境部环境规划院, 北京 100012;冶金工业规划研究院, 北京 100013
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钢铁行业是我国重要的CO2排放源.作为典型的资源能源密集型产业,钢铁行业加快绿色低碳转型、尽早实现碳达峰并有效降碳,既是行业自身高质量发展的内在需要,也是支撑落实国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的客观要求.本文综合考虑经济社会发展、资源能源利用、工艺结构调整、低碳技术应用等因素影响,开展了基于情景分析的钢铁行业CO2排放达峰路径研究,对不同情景下钢铁行业CO2的排放趋势进行测算,识别钢铁行业CO2减排的主要驱动因素,判断推动钢铁行业碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定“双碳”目标背景下钢铁行业CO2排放控制策略提供参考.测算结果表明,我国钢铁行业CO2总排放量有望在2020—2024年期间达到峰值;行业CO2总排放量峰值为18.1×108～18.5×108 t,达峰后到2030年降幅将超过3×108 t.研究显示,粗钢产量是决定我国钢铁行业碳排放能否快速达峰的关键,加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化以及提高系统能效水平是2030年前钢铁行业实现碳排放达峰并有效降碳的重要途径.到2030年,粗钢产量降低、加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化、提高系统能效水平以及氢能炼钢和二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)等前沿技术对钢铁行业CO2减排的贡献率分别为11％～52％、34％～52％、7％～20％、5％～13％和2％～3％.
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