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政府救济和农业保险是我国农村自然灾害救助体系中至关重要的两种手段。理论分析表明:政府救济费用增加既有可能引起农民增加投保(汲水效应),也有可能导致农民减少投保(挤出效应)。基于2001至2012年的省际面板数据开展政府救济影响农业保险市场的实证研究表明,在控制各省的上年受灾程度、农业现代化水平和农户受教育水平的基础上,人均农村自然灾害救济费对农业保险保费收入和人均农业保险保费收入均产生显著的汲水效应。进一步引入中央对地方专项转移支付中的救灾支出作为工具变量进行稳健性检验,结果仍然支持实证结论。该研究对我国健全农村自然灾害救助体系,最大限度地减少农民因灾致贫返贫现象具有重要的政策意义。
Government relief and agricultural insurance are the two most important means in the relief system of rural natural disasters in our country. The theoretical analysis shows that the increase of government relief costs may not only result in farmers ’increasing insurance (water-drawing effect), but also reduce the peasants’ insurance (crowding-out effect). Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2012, the empirical research on government relief affecting the agricultural insurance market shows that, on the basis of controlling the previous year’s disaster levels in various provinces, the level of agricultural modernization and the level of education of rural households, the per capita relief funds for rural natural disasters Agricultural insurance premium income and per capita agricultural insurance premium income have significant water drawing effect. Further introducing the central government’s efforts to test the robustness of disaster relief expenditures in special transfer payments of localities as a tool variable still supports empirical conclusions. This research has important policy significance for improving the relief system of rural natural disasters in our country, minimizing the peasants’ poverty and returning to poverty caused by the disaster.