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本文通过数学模型推导了买方分析师在纠正卖方分析师乐观偏差的作用.并且,利用基金公司的内部数据,实证检验了两类证券分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为与市场情绪的关系.研究发现,市场情绪高涨时,卖方分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为都更加乐观.相反,买方分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为在市场情绪高涨时都更加谨慎.进一步分析证实,市场情绪与分析师推荐和预测行为的关系在两类分析师之间有显著差异.研究结果表明,卖方分析师在市场情绪作用下可能只是随波逐流,但买方分析师能够纠正卖方分析师的乐观偏差,并且在一定程度上起到平抑市场情绪的作用.研究结果对中国资本市场的发展有重要启示.
In this paper, the mathematic model is used to deduce the function of buyer analysts in correcting the optimistic bias of the seller’s analysts.And, using the internal data of the fund company, this paper empirically tests the relationship between the stock recommendation and earnings forecast behavior of the two types of securities analysts and market sentiment. Found that when the market sentiment rose, the seller’s analyst’s stock recommendation and earnings forecasting are more optimistic.On the contrary, the buyer’s analyst’s stock recommendation and earnings forecasting behavior are more cautious in the market sentiment rising.Further analysis confirmed that the market sentiment and analysis The relationship between teacher recommendation and predictive behavior is significantly different between the two groups of analysts.The results show that the seller analysts may only drift with the market sentiment, but the buyer analysts can correct the optimistic bias of the seller analysts, The degree of play to stabilize the market sentiment.The results of the study of China’s capital market development has important implications.