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出租车是城市公共客运交通系统中,唯一的非定线交通系统。而在中国诸多大中城市中,交通拥堵管理成为城市出租车数量规制至关重要的目标与约束条件。本文基于大连市的数据,从宏观角度运用主成分分析和改进的指数平滑预测方法对城市出租车的需求量进行计量分析,将出租车速度因素考虑进来,从微观角度构建供需平衡的多目标规划模型,判断与预测城市出租车的合理数量。研究表明,大连市出租车市场的需求明显大于供给;鉴于城市出租车与定线公共交通系统的互补性、与私家车的替代性,在采取措施限制私家车出行的同时,应增加城市出租车的保有量。
Taxis are the only non-fixed-line transport systems in urban public transport system. In many large and medium-sized cities in China, traffic congestion management has become an important target and constraint for the regulation of the number of urban taxis. Based on the data of Dalian, this paper uses the principal component analysis and the improved exponential smoothing forecasting method to measure the urban taxi demand from the macroscopical point of view, taking the taxi speed factor into consideration and constructing the multi-objective balance between supply and demand Model, determine and predict a reasonable number of city taxis. The research shows that the demand of taxi market in Dalian is obviously greater than the supply. In view of the complementarity of urban taxi and fixed-line public transport system and the substitution of private cars, measures should be taken to limit the travel of private cars while increasing the number of urban taxis The amount of possession.