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文章利用协整理论,根据福建省1978～2007年度数据,对福建省财政收入与三大产业GDP之间的关系进行实证研究,研究结果表明:(1)福建省财政收入与三次产业GDP之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制;(2)福建省财政收入对第一产业GDP的弹性大于1,而对第二产业GDP和第三产业GDP的弹性小于1;(3)根据Granger因果关系检验,第一产业GDP和第二产业GDP不是财政收入的Granger因,财政收入也不是第一产业GDP和第二产业GDP的Granger因。在滞后期为1的情况下,第三产业GDP是财政收入的Granger因,但财政收入不是第三产业GDP的Granger因。
Based on the data from 1978 to 2007 in Fujian Province, the article makes an empirical study on the relationship between the fiscal revenue of Fujian Province and the GDP of the three industries. The results show that: (1) the relationship between Fujian’s fiscal revenue and GDP of the three industries (2) The fiscal elasticity of Fujian Province to the GDP of the primary industry is greater than 1, while the elasticity of the GDP to the secondary and tertiary industries is less than 1; (3) The long- According to the Granger causality test, the GDP of the primary industry and the GDP of the secondary industry are not the Granger cause of fiscal revenue, and the fiscal revenue is not the Granger cause of the GDP of the primary industry and the GDP of the secondary industry. In the case of a lag period of 1, the tertiary industry GDP is the Granger cause of fiscal revenue, but the fiscal revenue is not the Granger cause of the tertiary industry GDP.