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考虑土体参数空间变异性的非均质边坡最危险滑动面存在一定的空间变异性,导致边坡存在多种潜在失效模式。为有效解决含多失效模式的边坡可靠度问题,提出了非均质边坡可靠度分析的多重随机响应面法,并以一个含水平软弱夹层的边坡可靠度分析为例验证了提出方法的有效性,同时探讨了水平软弱夹层及其位置不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响,调查了单重响应面法分析考虑参数空间变异性非均质边坡可靠度问题的有效性。结果表明:多重随机响应面法为解决考虑多参数空间变异性的低概率水平非均质边坡可靠度问题提供了一个重要的工具,然而单重响应面法会高估边坡失效概率,导致偏保守的边坡设计方案。此外,水平软弱夹层对边坡稳定性、失效路径及可靠度均具有重要的影响,相比之下软弱夹层位置不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响较小。
Considering the spatial variability of soil parameters, the most dangerous slip surface of heterogeneous slope has some spatial variability, leading to various potential failure modes of slope. In order to effectively solve the slope reliability problems with multi-failure modes, a multi-random response surface method for heterogeneous slope reliability analysis is proposed. The reliability analysis of a slope with horizontal soft interlayer is taken as an example to verify the proposed method The validity of the horizontal weak interlayer and its location uncertainty on the slope reliability are discussed. The validity of the single response surface method to analyze the reliability of the heterogeneous slope considering the parameter space variability is investigated. The results show that the multiple random response surface method provides an important tool to solve the low probability level heterogeneous slope reliability problem considering the multi-parameter spatial variability. However, the single response surface method overestimates the probability of slope failure, resulting in Partial conservative slope design. In addition, the horizontal weak interlayer has an important influence on the slope stability, failure path and reliability. In contrast, the location of the weak interlayer has little effect on the slope reliability.